The Power and Pitfalls of Models
April 26, 2020
As COVID-19 spreads, researchers are developing models to predict how many people will become ill and what the effect will be on the health care system. But as a New York Times article points out, the models don’t always agree, yet some politicians are treating them as precise guides for public policy. In an earlier examination of the potential and pitfalls of modeling, two analysts in Issues offer the reminder that “all models are wrong but some are useful,” and they provide a checklist to aid in developing high-quality models and putting their results to best use.